A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
